News - 2012

15:00 Thursday 9 Aug 2012 Rupert Holmes takes an advance look at the weather that can be expected for this year's Aberdeen Asset Management Cowes Week

Rupert Holmes takes an advance look at the weather that can be expected for this year’s Aberdeen Asset Management Cowes Week….

By Saturday the high pressure that’s currently creating the very light winds over the UK will start moving away, giving perfect conditions for the first day of racing with a brisk easterly wind. This is likely to be around 18-20 knots, with a small possibility of significantly stronger gusts in the early afternoon. The day is forecast to start sunny, but with cloud cover gradually increasing during the afternoon and evening.

On Sunday a trough will pass over the Solent, bringing light rain showers and a change to a south-westerly Force 4/5 airflow. At the moment the models differ as to when this will happen – the European (ECMWF) and American (GFS) models predict it will be before dawn, but the UK Met Office forecasts this happening mid to late morning. Immediately after the passage of the trough the wind may soften considerably for a short time, before a south-westerly of 12-16 knots becomes established.

After that, all models are in agreement that this south-westerly Force 4 will continue through the day on Monday, before softening overnight and backing to a south-easterly Force 3/4 in advance of a weak area of low pressure.

Beyond Tuesday more uncertainty creeps into the long-term forecasts, as a series of weak low pressure systems moves in from the Atlantic. The indications are for predominately south-westerly winds, ranging from Force 3 up to 5/6, although there may be a few short periods of lighter airs and a risk of stronger gusts around showers.

The Aberdeen Asset Management Cowes Week meteorologist, Lindsey Middlemiss, will provide a daily weather forecast to all competitors throughout the regatta.